Feeds:
Posts
Comments

Posts Tagged ‘thinking’

old-man

In the new normal, data has become the Holy Grail for making business decisions.  Everywhere you look the importance of data comes to the surface.  Marketing programs, websites, hiring practices, social media, finance, sourcing, and manufacturing, to name just a few, all rely heavily on data as a feedstock for decision-making.  Throw this data in to a computer and ‘presto,’ you have your answer.

As the world moves to the age of data scientists, data engineers, data analysts and data architects, I reflect on something I experienced many years ago that I believe remains true today.

I took a course at Massachusetts Institute of Technology in computer simulation of business strategies.  Part of the course was a three-day forecasting competition using the data of a real business.  We set up four groups.  Each group developed their own business strategies and entered the data into the computer system each night.  The next day we reviewed the results and decided on new input for the next run.  It was a financial simulation model that involved using random number generators and distribution functions that mirrored historic company data and performance.  At that time, this type of simulation modeling was very sophisticated.  It was like the data analytics of today.

One group who corralled at the back end of the class room, included an older gentleman (old man).  He didn’t say much but when he did, his questions and comments were measured and well thought-out.  On the final day, when we were comparing our results, he spoke up.  Out of the back of the room came, “It won’t work.”  What?  “Your models won’t work.  I just cut off your raw material supply.”  Silence.  Game over.  Using his 40 plus years of business experience, intuition, and knowledge of the industry, he made a human decision that trumped our models.  It didn’t matter what the data was saying.  I never forgot this experience.

I have built many financial simulation models in my business career and realize that in every fancy algorithm, there is an old man.  I believe he also exists in today’s data analytics.  –  Beware of the old man.

Read Full Post »

orignal-thought

One of the great benefits of the rapid development and integration of computers in our lives is that information/data is ubiquitous.  It is basically available to anyone who wants to discover it.  So, some say, original thoughts are simply a compilation of existing information; a new recipe of existing ingredients.  It reminds me of a quote I ran across years ago:  Charles H. Duell was the Commissioner of US patent office in 1899 when he said that “everything that can be invented has been invented.”

Think of the journey the Wright brothers traveled to develop the foundation of manned-flight.  Remember the term “wonder drugs?”  They were ‘magical’ discoveries.’  I remember the conversations I had with my Uncle Frank, who was born in 1914, about some of the discoveries he experienced in his lifetime.  Even as an engineer, he marveled at the atomic bomb, and in later years personal computers.  Society couldn’t begin to understand the substance of these early discoveries.

For me, I remember in 1964 when I was at the World’s Fair in New York City; we were young kids.  Several of my friends and I walked into a room to get something to eat.  We were directed to a cooler that had hot dogs in small plastic bags.  Quite surprised, we turned to the clerk and said “these are cold.”  He pointed to a machine of some kind and told us to put the hot dogs in it and press the hot dog button.  Sixty seconds later we had steaming hot dogs out of a machine that didn’t get hot.  It was magic.  We couldn’t wait to get back to Kentucky and tell our friends about this magic box.  The funny thing is that we couldn’t adequately explain it.  The magic – a microwave oven.

So, what has changed?  Is original thought dead?  My answer, a resounding NO.  What has changed is the “expectation” of discovery.  Just a few decades ago, society did not expect some of the inventions that have become part of our lives.  Now society recognizes the power of the technology/information/data we have at our fingertips, and how it is going to change our future.  Original thought is not seen as ’discovery;’ it is simply an expectation.  Even to the point where you hear “Why is it taking so long?”

 

 

Read Full Post »

%d bloggers like this: